중국지역연구 Vol.12 No.1 pp.137-152
https://www.doi.org/10.34243/JCAS.12.1.137
当前国际形势下, 对韩半岛安全局势的分析
Key Words : Sino-US strategic competition,The Korean Peninsula,China-DPRK relations,DPRK-Russia relationship,Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula
Abstract
The world today is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century, which is a long and complicated evolutionary process. In the international landscape of strategic competition between China and the United States, the United States has weakened Russia's overall strength through the Russia-Ukraine war. Moreover, through the Israel-Iran conflict and the Syrian civil war, it has cut off Iran's “Axis of Resistance”, leaving Iran in a passive position where it can hardly take care of itself in the Middle East game. In East Asia, the United States hopes to establish a “mini-NATO in Asia” based on the quasi-alliance relationship among South Korea, the United States and Japan by strengthening its relations with South Korea and Japan, so as to confront China. With the initial formation of the confrontation framework between the trilateral relationship group among China, the DPRK and Russia in the north and the southern triangular group, a pattern of bloc confrontation with clear “Cold War” characteristics has emerged again on the Korean Peninsula. On June 19, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin and DPRK Chairman Kim Jong Un signed the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership of Cooperation in Pyongyang. The strengthening of the DPRK-Russia relationship has disrupted the original balance of power in the region between the “nuclear-armed DPRK” and “South Korea with modern conventional military forces and the United States providing extended deterrence”. This has enabled the DPRK to gain a “short-term relative advantage” in its confrontation with South Korea. And the DPRK, which has gained a temporary advantage, is more confident, bolder and more radical in the north-south game with South Korea (or the ROK-US-Japan group). This will undoubtedly increase the risk of accidental clashes on the Korean Peninsula and push the Korean Peninsula and even Northeast Asia to the brink of war. China's stance on the issue of the Korean Peninsula has always been to adhere to the denuclearization of the Peninsula, to uphold peace and stability on the Peninsula, and to advocate resolving the Peninsula issue through dialogue and consultation. While the development of China-DPRK relations helps maintain peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, it also faces some differences in opinions. The DPRK believes that an appropriate level of tension on the Peninsula is conducive to obtaining a larger international living space for itself, but this goes against China's national security need to maintain peace and stability on the Peninsula. Against the backdrop of the strategic competition between China and the United States, the DPRK, as China's strategic asset, is unlikely to be abandoned by China in the short term. Therefore, currently, China and the DPRK present a contradictory relationship where “cooperation” and “disagreements” coexist.